Can the Atlanta Falcons Make the Playoffs? A Local Fan’s Guide to What It Will Take

For football fans across metro Atlanta, the big question every season is the same: can the Atlanta Falcons make the playoffs?

The honest answer: yes, they can — but it depends on several moving pieces that Atlanta fans should understand, from the NFC South race to tiebreakers and late-season schedules.

This guide breaks down what has to happen, what to watch for if you live in or are visiting Atlanta, and how to follow the playoff push from right here in the city.

How the Falcons Can Reach the Playoffs

The Falcons have two main paths to the postseason:

1. Win the NFC South division
2. Earn an NFC Wild Card spot

1. Winning the NFC South

For Atlanta residents, the NFC South is the most realistic and most important path. The division includes:

• Atlanta Falcons
• New Orleans Saints
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Carolina Panthers

To win the division, the Falcons generally need:

• A strong divisional record (games vs. Saints, Bucs, Panthers)
• A solid overall record compared to the other NFC South teams
• To own key tiebreakers (head-to-head wins, divisional record, conference record)

Because the NFC South has often been tightly contested, a team doesn’t always need an elite record to win it. For Falcons fans around Atlanta, that keeps the door open even if the season starts unevenly.

2. Securing a Wild Card Spot

If the Falcons don’t win the NFC South, they can still make the playoffs as a Wild Card team. The NFC has:

• 4 division winners (each gets an automatic playoff spot)
• 3 Wild Card spots (best records among non-division winners)

For a Wild Card, the Falcons must:

• Finish with one of the top three records among non-division winners
• Survive tiebreakers with teams like the Cowboys, 49ers, Seahawks, Vikings, or others in the mix in a given year

Wild Card races are usually crowded, so every game — especially NFC matchups — matters.

What Falcons Fans in Atlanta Should Watch During the Season

If you’re following the team from Atlanta, here’s what really tells you if a playoff run is possible.

Track These Key Factors

1. Divisional Games (NFC South)
Games against the Saints, Bucs, and Panthers are often the difference between staying home and playing in January.

Look for:

• How many NFC South games are left
• Whether the Falcons own head-to-head wins over rivals
• Whether those rivals are winning or slipping

2. NFC Record
Conference games (vs. other NFC teams) are critical for tiebreakers. When you see an NFC matchup on the schedule, think:
👉 “This could matter a lot if there’s a tie in the standings.”

3. Head-to-Head Matchups With Playoff Contenders
If the Falcons are battling teams like the Vikings, Seahawks, or Packers for a Wild Card, head-to-head wins can make or break a tiebreaker.

4. Late-Season Momentum
In Atlanta, fans are used to watching December and early January games with everything on the line. Teams that:

• Stay relatively healthy
• Clean up turnovers and penalties
• Close out tight games

are usually the ones still standing in the playoff picture.

Understanding NFL Tiebreakers in Simple Terms

When multiple teams are close in the standings, tiebreaker rules decide who gets in. Here’s a simplified view of what usually matters most:

For Division Titles (like the NFC South)

When teams have the same record in the division, the league typically looks at:

1. Head-to-head record (who won the games between the tied teams)
2. Division record (how they did vs. NFC South opponents)
3. Conference record (how they did vs. NFC teams overall)

So if the Falcons split with the Saints but dominate the Panthers and Bucs, that strong division record can be the difference.

For Wild Card Spots

If the Falcons are tied with a team from another division:

1. Head-to-head result (if they played each other)
2. Conference record
3. Common opponents record (only if enough matchups overlap)

For Atlanta fans, that means a mid-season NFC game that doesn’t look huge at first glance could end up being a key playoff tiebreaker.

How Many Wins Do the Falcons Typically Need?

The exact number changes year to year, but patterns in NFC playoff races often look like this:

*These are general ranges based on recent NFC seasons, not strict cutoffs.

In many seasons, 9 wins keeps a team in the conversation, but 10+ wins makes things far more secure. If you’re in Atlanta and doing the mental math around midseason, you’ll often hear people asking:

• “Can they get to nine wins?”
• “Is ten wins still possible?”

Those are realistic benchmarks to follow as the season develops.

The Mercedes‑Benz Stadium Factor: Home-Field Edge in Atlanta

Playing in Mercedes‑Benz Stadium in downtown Atlanta gives the Falcons a clear advantage when things are going well.

• Location: 1 AMB Drive NW, Atlanta, GA 30313
• Nearby transit: Walkable from MARTA’s Vine City and GWCC/Philips Arena/CNN Center stations
• Tailgating & pregame: Surrounding areas near the Georgia World Congress Center and Centennial Olympic Park often buzz on game days

A strong home record is almost always part of a playoff season. For Atlanta fans, that means:

• Protecting home turf vs. division rivals
• Turning loud crowds into real pressure on visiting offenses
• Making late-season home games feel like playoff previews

If the Falcons are winning at home, their playoff chances rise noticeably.

If You Live in Atlanta: How to Follow the Playoff Race

Whether you’re in Midtown, Buckhead, Decatur, or the suburbs, there are easy ways to track how close the Falcons are to the postseason.

1. Watch Local Sports Coverage

Local TV and radio often break down the playoff picture in simple terms, especially late in the season.

Common local outlets include:

• Atlanta-based sports radio stations that run daily Falcons talk
• Local sports segments on Atlanta TV news that review standings, key matchups, and tiebreaker scenarios

They’ll often say things like:

• “If the Falcons win and the Saints lose, Atlanta moves into first.”
• “The Falcons now control their own destiny.” (Meaning: if they keep winning, they’re in, no help needed.)

2. Check NFC Standings Regularly

Instead of only watching the Falcons’ record, watch:

• NFC South standings
• Overall NFC Wild Card picture

This helps you see:

• Which teams Atlanta needs to leapfrog
• Whether the Falcons are in a “win and in” situation
• How much help they might need from other results

3. Understand “Control Their Destiny”

You’ll hear this phrase a lot in Atlanta sports conversations. It means:

• If the Falcons win all or most of their remaining games, they are guaranteed a spot based on current standings.
• They don’t need other teams to lose.

Once a team loses “control of its destiny,” it needs both wins and outside help.

Visiting Atlanta? How to Experience the Falcons’ Playoff Push

If you’re visiting Atlanta during football season and wondering if the Falcons can make the playoffs, you can still get fully immersed in the local energy.

Catch a Game at Mercedes‑Benz Stadium

Even if the playoff picture is uncertain, late-season home games can feel huge.

Tips if you’re in town:

• Check the remaining home schedule: Late-season divisional games vs. the Saints, Bucs, or Panthers often decide the NFC South.
• Use MARTA: Avoid downtown parking stress by riding MARTA to GWCC/Philips Arena/CNN Center or Vine City.
• Plan for security and timing: Arrive early to move through bag checks and enjoy pregame events.

Watch With Locals Around Atlanta

Many neighborhoods lean heavily into game day:

• Downtown and Centennial Olympic Park area
• Midtown spots with TVs and game-day specials
• Areas near Georgia State University and the college crowd

You’ll hear the same question repeated:
“Do we still have a shot at the playoffs?”
Local conversations, especially late in the season, often include quick crash courses on what needs to happen.

What Needs to Go Right for the Falcons to Be a Playoff Team

If you’re evaluating the Falcons realistically from an Atlanta perspective, these are the core ingredients of a playoff run.

1. Solid Quarterback Play

Playoff teams usually have:

• Efficient passing (avoiding costly turnovers)
• Enough explosive plays to keep defenses honest

For Falcons fans, watching the quarterback’s decision-making in tight games is a major indicator of whether the team can hang with playoff-level opponents.

2. Strong Run Game and Run Defense

Atlanta has often emphasized the running game, and it tends to be a playoff-friendly formula:

• Control the clock
• Keep the defense fresh
• Help manage tough road environments

On defense, stopping the run forces opponents to be one-dimensional, which is vital in January-style games.

3. Red Zone and Third-Down Performance

Two big “hidden” factors:

• Red zone efficiency: Turning trips inside the 20 into touchdowns, not field goals
• Third-down conversions: Extending drives and keeping the defense off the field

Locally, you’ll hear plenty of game-day chatter about “we’ve got to finish drives” — a key playoff trait.

4. Health and Depth

Injuries are a reality in the NFL. Teams that make the playoffs:

• Have enough depth at key positions
• Avoid losing too many starters at once

For fans in Atlanta, keeping an eye on the weekly injury report gives you a sense of how sustainable a playoff push might be.

How to Tell If the Falcons Are Truly in the Playoff Hunt

By mid-to-late season, ask yourself these questions:

• Are the Falcons at or above .500?
  A record at or above even keeps them in the realistic conversation.

• Do they have a favorable path in the remaining schedule?
  More home games and more divisional matchups can help if they’re close.

• Do they hold key tiebreakers?
  Wins over division rivals and NFC Wild Card contenders are massive.

• Are they winning close games?
  Good playoff teams find ways to close out tight fourth quarters.

If the answers to several of these are “yes,” then from an Atlanta standpoint, the Falcons are legitimately in the playoff race, not just mathematically alive.

So… Can the Atlanta Falcons Make the Playoffs?

From an Atlanta-focused perspective, the path is always the same:

• Win enough games to contend for the NFC South or Wild Card
• Own key tiebreakers against division rivals and NFC contenders
• Finish strong down the stretch, especially in December games

The Falcons can absolutely make the playoffs in a typical season. Whether they actually get there depends on how they perform in:

• NFC South matchups
• Close, late-season games
• Critical tiebreaker situations

If you live in or are visiting Atlanta, following these pieces — standings, division games, and late-season momentum — will give you a clear, practical picture of whether the Falcons’ playoff hopes are real or just theoretical.